2/26 Intraday Reminder

Here are some points for your reference:

First, the rise in raw material prices for lithium carbonate has little impact on midstream lithium battery manufacturers. In 2022, when lithium carbonate was at 600,000 yuan, check the performance of major lithium producers—did they suffer huge losses due to the price increase? No, they didn’t. From November 2022, when it dropped from 600,000 to 100,000 yuan, look at the performance of leading lithium battery companies like EVE and CATL—did their net profits change significantly? No, they didn’t. Because they are protected from fluctuations; when raw material prices rise, they typically pass the increased costs onto the finished lithium batteries, raising prices accordingly. Therefore, the increase in lithium carbonate prices has little effect on the performance of top lithium battery manufacturers. The most affected part is the last link in the industry chain—consumers, specifically automakers. All price transmissions eventually reach car companies and new energy storage projects. Currently, the market is reacting negatively to lithium carbonate price hikes, but I believe this is a misjudgment. I was just worried that EVE’s recent rise might not last, but if lithium carbonate prices continue to rise and cause EVE’s stock to fall, I will definitely buy more. Think carefully, don’t follow the crowd blindly. Sometimes I see comments that are just plain stupid.

Second, Zimbabwe banning the export of lithium ore will definitely impact Shengxin Lithium. I mentioned yesterday that this stock is highly volatile. Yesterday, other lithium carbonate raw material stocks saw small gains, but this one surged the most. Now, with negative news that Zimbabwe won’t export lithium carbonate, I see it as a short-term negative. It doesn’t affect the overall situation because Zimbabwe’s government is just trying to follow other countries by restricting exports to raise prices and increase profits. Their ultimate goal is to make money. As long as money can solve the problem, it’s not a big issue. So, in the short term, Zimbabwe’s export ban is a negative for Shengxin Lithium, but I believe they will use money to resolve it—probably by paying the government more. Ultimately, it’s likely they can solve the issue with money because they’re just asking for more funds. The government will eventually lift the ban. So I see it as a short-term negative, not a long-term one. They haven’t directly seized Shengxin Lithium’s mining rights, so the impact is temporary. Whether they will seize the mining rights in the future is uncertain. That’s why I only buy Ganfeng and Salt Lake Lithium—Salt Lake is the most stable because it has both potassium fertilizer and lithium carbonate concepts. I also warned before to be cautious of companies with many overseas mines, as local governments might seize their resources when raw material prices keep rising. It’s human nature. Domestic mines are the safest choice.

Third, although lithium carbonate prices are rising, there’s a negative expectation: if prices break 200,000 yuan, then Ningde’s lithium mine in Jianshijia will definitely accelerate its restart, including environmental assessments and other procedures, driven by high profits. Remember, we are in a place where relationships matter a lot. When huge profits are involved, everything can be solved with money. When it can’t, it’s just because the money isn’t enough. So I believe that the faster lithium carbonate prices rise, the quicker the Jianshijia lithium mine will resume production. This negative factor will also suppress lithium carbonate futures prices. When prices approach 200,000 yuan, reducing positions is the right move. If lithium carbonate can stabilize above 200,000 yuan, and if the big players above don’t continue to suppress prices, and if there’s no further negative news about the mine’s restart, then when the time comes, you can add back the previously reduced positions. This won’t make you miss out on much profit, but it can help you avoid significant profit retracement.

Fourth, after several months of adjustment, I think the commercial aerospace sector is doing quite well. Today, I bought some Goldwind Technology and China Satcom. Goldwind is a popular stock—if you have low risk tolerance, avoid it. If you want to play, you can consider satellite ETFs or related funds, which are less volatile. Or just pick stocks you believe in. I think commercial aerospace remains one of the main themes for 2026 and will be repeatedly hotly discussed. Silver has reached around 90, facing resistance; it hasn’t stabilized above 92 and has fallen back to 88, which is normal. As I said yesterday, this level is a resistance zone, and it will fluctuate with news. When silver stops rising and begins to retrace, I believe capital will flow back into the aerospace sector, which has been adjusted for a long time. I also bought a recent IPO stock, a commercial aerospace company—Electro-Optical Blue Sky—after a series of declines. The trend looks okay, so I bought some. This is just for reference and not investment advice. Decide your own portfolio. I’m just sharing my operations.

(Note: Due to a 1-day restriction, I’m posting this content here. If the sponsors don’t see it, it’s not my fault. It will be unblocked at 1 PM. I wanted to post before the market closes at noon, so I’m sharing it early.)