【Mid-Age Retail Investor Self-Help Guide · Daily Report February 26】

Today marks the third trading day after the holiday. The global markets are moving differently, with a focus on the crypto world👇
₿ Crypto Market: The Shorts Are Being squeezed
First and foremost—the textbook-level short squeeze occurred last night.
BTC rebounded to about $68,500, up over 6% in 24 hours; ETH regained the $2,000 level, with a single-day increase of about 10%; SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK all surged over 10%, almost a broad rally across the altcoin market. In the past 24 hours, approximately $400 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated. This is the core driver of this rebound—not buying pressure, but shorts being forced to buy back to cover.
Background: Throughout February, shorts were extremely crowded, with perpetual contract funding rates turning negative multiple times (shorts paying longs). The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11—the lowest in history—indicating extreme panic. This is a typical “short sellers thinking they are guaranteed to win” scenario. Such conditions often trigger a lightning-fast rebound, clearing out overly crowded short positions.
But note: current technical analysis suggests this rebound is a technical bounce, with no clear fundamental catalysts. BTC has fallen nearly 50% from its October high of $125,000, with a year-to-date decline of about 27%. The short-term level of $68,000 is not a safe zone; it’s just a bounce, not a sign of a bottom formation.
Analyst at LMAX Group directly warned: The sustainability of this rebound should be approached with caution.
Key points in the crypto market today:
∙ The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows again, the strongest since early February, indicating a slight recovery in US investor sentiment.
∙ Coinbase rose 13.52% today—announcing the opening of stock and ETF trading to US users, expanding into traditional brokerage services.
∙ Circle (issuer of USDC) also followed the crypto stocks rally.
∙ NEAR Protocol surged 21.8% in a single day, with market cap rebounding to $1.52 billion, trading volume expanded to $300 million, making it today’s small-cap star.
My view: It’s true that shorts have been squeezed, but whether the bulls can hold the gains is another matter. Entering the market now to chase the rally carries risks. Only after funding rates stabilize and turn positive, and ETF net inflows continue for more than three days, should a more reliable bullish signal be considered.
📈 A-shares: Structural “Red Envelopes,” but don’t misunderstand
Shanghai Composite +0.72% to close at 4147, Shenzhen Component +1.29%, ChiNext +1.41%, with a trading volume of 2.48 trillion yuan, higher than yesterday. Two consecutive days of gains post-holiday look promising.
But a closer look at sectors: Rare earths, phosphate chemicals, lithium mining, and shipping performed well; media, banking, and home appliances declined. Cyclical resource stocks are rising, while consumer and financial sectors are falling—this reflects the re-inflationary logic, not a full-blown bull market.
Insurance funds plan to slightly increase their A-share holdings this year. A survey of 127 insurance institutions shows overall optimism. Slow capital inflow is positive, but “slow” means no big breakout is expected soon.
The A-H discount recovery is also a hot topic: Hong Kong-listed companies that are cheaper than their A-share counterparts are quietly being bought at a discount by public funds.
🇺🇸 US Stocks: Nvidia’s Earnings Support Sentiment
Dow +0.63%, Nasdaq +1.26%, S&P +0.81%. Nvidia’s after-hours earnings exceeded expectations, with Jensen Huang saying “clients are investing heavily in AI computing power,” boosting overall tech sentiment.
But there’s clear divergence: Workday plunged due to weak revenue outlook; Microsoft faces a Japanese antitrust investigation; AMD and Meta signed a five-year GPU supply agreement. The AI narrative remains, but market participants are still unsure about the specific flow of funds.
UBS has advised clients to shift money from “digital economy” (tech stocks) to “real economy” (mining, electricity, industry). Morgan Stanley suggests that AI panic caused excessive selling, and software stocks present entry points. Both perspectives have merit, so… judge for yourself.
🌐 Macroeconomics: Watch these two things closely
First, Trump’s 15% global tariffs—one of the main triggers for the February crypto and US stock sell-off—is still unresolved. Any easing signals could trigger a rebound in risk assets.
Second, the US-Iran military situation—Trump previously said a decision on whether to strike Iran would be made within 10 days. Today is the window period, and black swan risks still exist. Gold remains one of the most stable assets recently (current price around $5,172/oz).
Retails’ Closing Words:
The biggest story today is the short squeeze in the crypto market. It’s satisfying, but that doesn’t mean the bear market is over. If tariffs continue to tighten next week or if there’s action in the Middle East, this rally could only be half of what it is now before falling back.
Keep observing, don’t chase the highs, and manage your positions carefully. 🍜