Why BTC Price Fell Short of the Seasonal Year-End Rally

Bitcoin entered the final stretch of 2024 with disappointing momentum. As the calendar wound down toward the new year, BTC price underperformed dramatically against its historical seasonal pattern. This period—typically called the “Santa rally”—has historically been one of bitcoin’s most bullish windows, yet this time the largest cryptocurrency failed to deliver the expected gains.

The numbers tell a stark story: Bitcoin’s BTC price was on track to slide 11% during the 51st week of the year, when it typically gains around 2.8%. Week 52 looked no better, with five of the past six years showing declines despite an average historical 3% gain. The broader fourth quarter also fell short, with BTC price rising less than 50% year-to-date, compared to the historical average of 85% gains in Q4 since 2013, according to Coinglass data.

The Historical Case for Q4 Bitcoin Price Strength

Historically, the fourth quarter has been bitcoin’s most consistently bullish period. Since 2013, data shows BTC price has averaged 85% gains during October through December. The final week of December typically sees modest but reliable performance. However, this pattern has shown cracks recently—particularly in five of the last six years, where BTC price actually declined rather than rallied during week 52.

The “Santa rally” concept, loosely defined as price gains in the final weeks of December through early January, should theoretically provide strong tailwinds for BTC price. Yet reality has increasingly diverged from this expectation. Understanding why requires examining both the technical setup and the broader market conditions.

Current BTC Price Performance: A Bull Market Still Intact?

Despite the recent pullback, the underlying bull market structure may remain intact based on key on-chain metrics. The short-term holder’s realized price (STH RP)—which measures the average on-chain acquisition cost for bitcoin moved within the last 155 days—currently sits at $84,000. This level matters because during genuine bull markets, BTC price typically uses the STH RP as a support level rather than falling below it.

In 2021, bitcoin demonstrated this pattern clearly. From December 2020 through April 2021, BTC price consistently bounced off the STH RP level while the realized price (average cost basis for all tokens) continued climbing. That bull run ultimately peaked near $70,000 in November 2021. The current setup mirrors this structure: the realized price is moving higher, indicating investors are accumulating at elevated levels, while BTC price remains above the $84,000 support zone—suggesting the bull market framework hasn’t broken down.

Technical Resistance and the Failed Breakout

Bitcoin briefly challenged the $70,000 resistance level before retreating to approximately $68,300. This failed breakout attempt carries significance for short-term momentum and highlights the fragility of the current setup. Meanwhile, altcoins including Ether, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin significantly outperformed BTC price, signaling a tactical rotation into higher-risk tokens and renewed appetite for alternative assets.

Risk Factors: The Path Forward for BTC Price

Several headwinds threaten BTC price momentum in the near term. Macro conditions remain fragile, stablecoin supply growth has stagnated, and liquidation cascades below $60,000 pose systemic risk. Analysts warn that despite the technical bull market structure, these external pressures create uncertainty around BTC price’s medium-term trajectory.

The gap between BTC price’s technical setup and its actual performance reflects the tension between on-chain fundamentals and real-world market dynamics. While the $84,000 support level suggests the bull market remains intact, sustained strength in BTC price will require overcoming current resistance and broader market skepticism.