How The Western Union (WU) Story Is Shifting With Stablecoin Risks And A Trimmed Valuation

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 3:07 PM GMT+9 4 min read

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Western Union’s updated analyst model now points to a slightly trimmed fair value, shifting from US$9.75 to about US$9.69, a move of less than 1% in the stated target. Bulls and bears are reading that small change very differently, with some focusing on the cautious tone reflected in the new number and others remaining wary about stablecoin related competition. As you read on, you will see how these competing views shape the evolving story around Western Union and how you can track it over time.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Western Union.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Some investors still view Western Union as a cash generative incumbent in cross border payments, which can give the company room to keep investing in digital offerings while supporting its existing network.

The small trim in the analyst model fair value, from US$9.75 to about US$9.69, suggests that at least one set of assumptions around earnings power and capital returns has not radically shifted.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Cantor Fitzgerald recently started coverage at Underweight and highlighted “stablecoin sentiment headwinds,” signaling concern that changing attitudes toward blockchain based alternatives could weigh on Western Union’s long term relevance.

The updated, slightly lower fair value is being read by some as a sign that the risk balance may be tilting toward execution questions on digital products and competitive pressure rather than clear growth upside.

Bears point to the combination of Cantor’s Underweight stance and the cautious fair value tweak as a reason to focus closely on how Western Union proves its model against newer, lower cost transfer options.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

NYSE:WU 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We’ve flagged 2 risks for Western Union. See which could impact your investment.

What’s in the News

Western Union issued earnings guidance for the full year 2026, targeting GAAP revenue growth of 5% to 8% and EPS in a range of US$1.50 to US$1.60.

The company launched a Global Capability Center in Hyderabad, India with HCLTech to support AI led transformation, a platform operating model and engineering, complementing its existing Pune Tech Center.

The Hyderabad center is planned as a global hub for technology, engineering and operations, including next generation payments infrastructure and digital consumer experiences, using HCLTech's AI powered solutions such as AI Force™.

Western Union announced a partnership with Deutsche Post to offer cross border money transfer services across most Deutsche Post partner branches in Germany starting in the second quarter of 2026.

 






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How This Changes the Fair Value For Western Union

Fair value in the updated model is trimmed slightly from US$9.75 to about US$9.69, a reduction of less than 1% in the modelled target.

Revenue growth assumption is updated from 1.39% to about 3.94% in the forecast period.

Net profit margin assumption is revised from 12.23% to about 12.82%.

Future P/E multiple is moved from 6.39x to about 5.92x in the updated analysis.

Discount rate is adjusted from 9.07% to about 9.03%, indicating only a small change in required return assumptions.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives connect Western Union’s business story to analyst forecasts and a fair value estimate that refreshes as new data and news come through. They help you see how product moves, regulation and competition all feed into the numbers over time.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Western Union to stay up to date on:

How Western Union is pushing into digital wallets, AI driven efficiencies and consumer services like travel money and bill pay to reshape its revenue mix and margins.

The role of migration and urbanization in supporting remittance volumes, along with Western Union's early work with stablecoins and on chain settlement as potential new use cases.

Key pressure points such as regulatory changes on remittances, competition from low cost fintech and blockchain based players, and the risk that digital growth does not offset weakness in the traditional cash based network.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include WU.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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