The 4-Year Cycle of $BTC: Is $60,000 the Bottom or Just an Illusion?

Many people are saying that the $60,000 USD level is the bottom of this bear cycle. I don’t rush to deny it, but I also don’t easily agree. Looking back at Bitcoin’s history, the 4-year cycle has almost become the “guideline” of the market: About 2 years of strong growth (bull market) 1 year of deep decline (bear market) 1 year of accumulation and transition to a new cycle This structure has repeated many times. But currently, some expect the bear market to last only 4–6 months, with the remaining 3.5 years of continuous growth, with minor corrections just to go higher. The question is: Is that realistic? Don’t Forget Who Holds the Advantage Do you think you have a cost advantage over the “whales”? Do you think large capital flows will give retail enough time to calmly accumulate alongside them? The market does not operate based on the hopes of the majority. To truly reverse, the market usually needs to: Clear out early “bottom fishers” Trigger multiple stop-losses Create a sense of frustration and despair When most still believe that “this price is cheap,” it’s often not cheap enough. What Does History Say About the Decline? Look at the data from previous Bitcoin cycles: Cycle 1: About 81% decline Cycle 2: About 83% decline Cycle 3: About 78% decline On average, corrections fall into the 75–80% range. Using the most recent peak as a reference, a drop to $60,000 USD is only about 52%. That’s still quite far from the “historical standard.” So, what are you betting on? Believing that the 4-year cycle will continue to repeat? Or believing that “this time will be different”? In investing, probabilities tend to favor what has repeated many times rather than believing in an exception. “This Time Is Different” – The Most Dangerous Phrase in the Market Each cycle has its own story: ETFs, big institutional participation, new technology, new capital flows… And each time, many believe: “The market has matured, it won’t drop as deeply as before.” But human psychology doesn’t change. Greed and fear still operate in the same way. Conclusion: Be More Rational Than Optimistic No one knows for sure if $60,000 USD is the bottom. But based on probabilities and history, the possibility of further significant volatility cannot be ruled out. In investing, what matters is not predicting the bottom correctly, but: Capital management Expectations management And understanding that the market is not obliged to follow your wishes Betting on the repeating laws of history is usually safer than believing the story “this time is different.” $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)