The Divergence in Miner Behavior—Sell-offs Hit Lows, AI Transition Already Underway

The behavior patterns of Bitcoin miners are undergoing profound changes, and the impact on market supply cannot be ignored.

On one hand, the selling pressure from miners has dropped to multi-year lows. On April 7, the Miner Position Index fell to 0.3, indicating a sharp decrease in miners transferring BTC to exchanges. This data is often interpreted as a bullish signal for future prices, as reduced selling suggests miners are more willing to hold their inventory in anticipation of higher prices.

On the other hand, leading mining companies are engaging in large-scale sell-offs. Mara Holdings sold 15,133 BTC between March 4 and 25, cashing out over $1 billion, while announcing a reduction of about 15% of its staff and shifting towards energy and digital infrastructure businesses. Riot Platforms sold approximately 3,778 BTC in the first quarter for around $289.5 million, about 2.6 times its production (1,473 BTC). More critically, according to CoinShares’ Q1 2026 mining report, the weighted average cash cost per BTC for publicly listed miners has soared to $79,995, while BTC spot prices are only fluctuating between $67k and $70k. This means miners are losing about $19k for each Bitcoin mined.

Why is there a divergence where “overall miner reluctance to sell” coexists with top miners accelerating their sell-offs? The answer lies in business transformation. Mining companies have signed over $70 billion in contracts for AI and high-performance computing, with some expecting 70% of their revenue to come from AI by the end of 2026. Essentially, they have shifted from being “Bitcoin miners” to “data center operators.” This transformation means that the traditional “miner sell pressure” indicator is losing its original significance—top miners are not selling BTC out of bearish price expectations but to raise funds for AI computing capacity.

For investors, this shift has two implications: first, the supply-side pressure on Bitcoin is easing because the traditional logic of continuous miner sell-offs is being broken; second, the transition of miners into AI may reduce the addition of new hash power to the Bitcoin network, potentially impacting network security in the long term.

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