LaughingDaysYsxdct

Yesterday, I had a call with a trader friend, casually reviewing and reflecting. Through sharing, I was able to articulate some points I had been thinking about recently but hadn't had the chance to systematically summarize. It seems that communication with others is still essential; talking helps people improve. Here are the points: 1. Choosing good targets is very important 2. Choosing the right timing is very important 3. Correct target + correct timing = twice the result with half the effort 4. Correct target + wrong timing = futile effort

This cracked me up. No wonder X isn't working well; the product manager didn't do enough homework. I really couldn't hold back when I saw the word "turmoil." Brothers, tell him, what does this mean in the picture!

According to the pattern, assuming 71800 is the top, the next target should be between 63850 and 65000 (Figure 1); if a Z-wave breakout occurs, the resistance is between 76-77 (Figure 2)). If it drops, observe the support at 63850—65000 and the rebound strength. If it's a weak rebound, then a real decline may be coming. If it's a strong rebound and pushes above 618, then the oscillation range will expand;

This rebound of Bitcoin from 60,000 I would call a classic market pattern controlled by major players' manipulative tactics. Every time it rises, you think it can go higher, but then it suddenly stops; when you start shorting, your short positions get wiped out while you're asleep, and it drops again; every retracement is at the limit; every sideways movement is a dilemma. Let me use Fibonacci retracement to review this classic control move:

Bitcoin still follows the meat grinder logic: high difficulty, low returns, not worth participating in the game. Why does it go up? Because it’s going up to open short positions above; Why does it go down? Because it’s going down to open long positions below; Why is it no longer moving up? Because there isn’t enough momentum to break higher and the cost-benefit ratio is no longer favorable; Why is it no longer moving down? Same reasoning.

$BTC Daily closing was quite ugly, and the bears indeed exerted effort in this rectangular area (Figure 1); $XAU Similarly, there was a false breakout (Figure 2), but the level is relatively small, and the signal is quite blurry; however, from the wave pattern, it very much aligns with a small 5-wave decline followed by a flat rebound; the signals from these two assets are not very strong, and the market trend leans towards a decline.

If this wave is a Z-wave rally that can break the previous high, then I respect you as a real man. If this is just a rebound targeting the 74 decline, then I really curse your mother!

This ECG-like market pattern really doesn't inspire any desire to open a position. (When my long position at 66666 was wiped out, I initially thought it was a disaster, but later I realized it was a blessing.)

Is the two-day cryptocurrency bull market just a pipe dream? If tomorrow's close shows that long upper shadow, it would look pretty bad. That box above, I just drew it randomly; there's no need to pin the price below it.😂😂😂

In the AI era, it's understandable that companies are competing fiercely—after all, they are businesses, and it's a constant struggle upstream. But I don't think ordinary people need to have "AI anxiety." I already get pretty anxious about trading, so why should AI make me more anxious? Right now, I only have a basic understanding of crayfish—knowing what it is and what it can do!

It has only been seven days since I posted this on March 3rd. The US and Iran are indeed showing signs of stopping. I don't understand the international situation, nor am I familiar with geopolitics; but I can do the math. I believe that Trump and Iran can also do the math, so of course they will act in the way that makes the most sense. Let's take another look at the comment section of the quote, and then look at the lengthy comments from the teachers. Sigh~~!

I said, the signs of performance are too obvious and can't be hidden. The real test for the bulls is coming next. The EMA21 and SMA30 on the daily chart have been worn out and are no longer useful. Don't look at them anymore; they're useless. I also checked other moving averages, but their historical significance is minimal and they don't provide much reference.

Actually, I think tokenization of U.S. stocks is the latest benefit bestowed upon us old crypto enthusiasts in this era. In the past, the crypto world was in a high-growth period, with narratives like GAMEFI, NFT, the Metaverse, public chains, and more competing for attention; everyone was vying to be heard. Back then, we didn't even bother to play with Bitcoin or Ethereum, because the profit speed was too slow, way too slow!

Recent observations of several assets: 1. Silver (Figure 1) has shown some weakness in its bearish trend. The 86.5 level has been broken, so we will temporarily stop shorting; silver is a leading indicator for gold (which hasn't broken significantly), so gold's short positions are also paused simultaneously. 2. $CRCL broke below 100 on Sunday and stubbornly held the main position. This main position can withstand unlimited retracement, and we will add to the position infinitely during the retracement.

Starting from October 2025, whether in the U.S. stock market or cryptocurrencies, trading difficulty has increased to a new level, specifically reflected in: 1. The U.S. stock indices have been sideways for over four months, but individual stocks within have completed several rounds of rapid rotation; 2. While the internal rotation in the U.S. stock market is underway, the overall market liquidity has surged into the gold and silver (precious metals) sector, completing another off-market cycle; 3. The cryptocurrency market has entered a bear winter.

Let's talk about Bitcoin's market trend: 1. On the daily chart, the RSI fast line has retreated after testing the slow line and is now bouncing back; the MACD is showing a good trend, still below zero, with room for a rebound; 2. Strength and weakness are within the oscillation range of 60,000-74,000, with the midline at 67,000. Currently, the price is above the midline, indicating a slightly bullish outlook.

Yesterday I said I felt it might be a big miracle day, and sure enough, it was a big miracle day; doesn't this feeling seem pretty accurate? I prefer to trade based on intuition, what's wrong with that! PS: In volatile markets, (it feels like) the easiest to hit extreme levels and then reverse.

There hasn't been a big miracle day in the US stock market, but there has been a miracle day in the crypto world. When you are bullish on Bitcoin and bullish on the US stock market, you go long $CRCL ; when you are bearish on Bitcoin and bearish on the US stock market, you go short $ETH . Chasing highs means you'll never catch the top, and bottom-fishing means you'll never find the bottom.

Stop blaming the crypto world already. Gold, silver, and oil are all charting patterns every day. It's not that the crypto space is broken; it's that this market is broken. The trading logic of the market is now more complex, and the difficulty is higher. We are going through something we've never experienced before...