$697 million in a single day massive inflow! Bitcoin ETF sees its strongest institutional buying in three months

Beginning of 2026, the US spot Bitcoin ETF ushers in a “golden start,” recording a single-day net inflow of up to $697.2 million on Monday, January 5th, the highest in three months since October 7, 2025. In the first two trading days of 2026, the total net inflow of such products has approached $1.2 billion, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rebound from around $87,000 to above $94,000.

Historical data shows that sustained ETF capital outflows often coincide with local market bottoms, while the current shift from negative to positive flows, combined with the rebound of Coinbase premium index, indicates that the market’s “capitulation selling” phase may have ended, and institutional reallocation is injecting strong momentum into the market.

Massive Capital Inflows: Details Behind the $697 Million Daily ETF Inflow

In the first full trading week of 2026, the cryptocurrency market sent a strong signal. According to data from Farside, SoSoValue, and others, on January 5th, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a daily net inflow of $697.2 million. This is not just a number; it marks the largest single-day inflow since October 7, 2025, signaling that after a relatively stagnant Q4, institutional investors’ buying appetite is returning strongly. This massive inflow is not accidental; it perfectly resonates with Bitcoin’s price breaking above $93,000 and reaching a high of $94,745 on the same day, reversing the sluggish or even net outflow trend seen in late December last year.

Breaking down the capital flows, we can see clearer institutional preferences. BlackRock’s IBIT was the biggest winner, with a net inflow of $372 million, accounting for over 53% of the total daily inflow, further solidifying its position as the primary gateway for large traditional funds entering Bitcoin. Fidelity’s FBTC ranked second with $191 million in net inflow. Notably, nine different Bitcoin ETF products experienced positive flows, including strong demand for products from Bitwise, Ark, and Invesco. This “blooming everywhere” scenario, rather than concentration on a single product, indicates that demand for increased allocation comes from a diversified investor base.

More optimistic signals come from broader asset classes. On the same day, spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded over $168 million in net inflow, experiencing a significant rebound. The simultaneous inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the two top-tier crypto assets, strongly suggests that the overall risk appetite in the digital asset space has been recovering since the beginning of the year. This is not just a “safe-haven” move for individual assets but likely a strategic decision by institutional committees to increase exposure to the entire crypto asset class. This coordinated buying behavior has built a broader and more solid capital foundation for the market.

2026 Key Data on Bitcoin ETF Capital Inflows

Overall scale:

• January 5th single-day net inflow: $697.2 million (three-month high)
• Total net inflow in the first two trading days of 2026: about $1.2 billion
• Bitcoin price increase during the same period: from about $87,000 to over $94,000, nearly 7%

Major product contributions (January 5th):

• BlackRock IBIT: net inflow of $372 million (over 53%)
• Fidelity FBTC: net inflow of $191 million
• Number of products with positive inflows: 9

Related market performance:

• Spot Ethereum ETF net inflow on the same day: over $168 million
• Coinbase premium index: rebounded from deep negative levels, indicating easing selling pressure

From Outflows to Inflows: Institutional Behavior Shift Signals Market Phase Transition

This massive single-day inflow is not a random intraday fluctuation; behind it lies a clear institutional behavioral logic. Reviewing history, according to Glassnode data, measured by the 30-day moving average, since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, prolonged net outflows often coincide with local market bottoms. For example, during the Japanese yen arbitrage unwind in August 2024, Bitcoin dropped to about $49,000; during the “tariff panic” in April 2025, the market formed a local low near $76,000. These periods were accompanied by continuous ETF capital outflows, reflecting institutions reducing their holdings during market panic.

Contrasting with the current situation, the “turning point” in capital flows is particularly significant. ETF outflows began in October 2025, but now have clearly reversed to positive inflows. This shift is supported by another key indicator—the Coinbase premium index. This index measures the premium of Bitcoin prices on major US centralized exchanges relative to the global average. When it is deeply negative, it usually indicates US institutional investors are selling via OTC markets or exchanges. Currently, the index has risen from lows back toward neutral levels, suggesting that the market conditions consistent with “capitulation selling” are receding.

Looking back to the start of the year, this reversal in capital flows can be interpreted as a combination of the “New Year Effect” and “Institutional Re-risk Allocation.” At the end of 2025, fund managers generally engaged in tax-loss harvesting and risk reduction, leading to net capital outflows. As the new year begins, after completing annual reviews and deploying new funds, risk appetite naturally rebounds. Crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum with compliant ETF channels, have become preferred assets for reallocating emerging asset classes. The phenomenon of BlackRock IBIT accounting for over half of inflows precisely indicates that large, traditional asset allocation institutions are the main drivers of this capital wave, and their actions tend to be more sustained and directional.

Supply-Demand Structure Optimization: How ETF Demand and On-Chain Behavior jointly push prices higher

The most direct impact of massive ETF capital inflows is the change in Bitcoin’s short-term supply and demand structure. Unlike leveraged speculative trading, ETF inflows represent longer-term physical asset allocation needs. To meet investor subscription demands, issuers need to buy an equivalent amount of Bitcoin in the spot market. This “physical backing” model means that daily billions of dollars in inflows directly translate into real buy orders, continuously absorbing floating supply and helping stabilize prices and facilitate price discovery.

Meanwhile, on-chain data provides positive signals on the supply-demand side: selling pressure is easing. Over the past week, major centralized exchanges have seen continuous net outflows of Bitcoin. In the 24 hours before January 5th, about 12,946 BTC (worth roughly $1.2 billion) were withdrawn from exchange wallets. This large-scale withdrawal has dual implications: on one hand, it may indicate that large investors or institutions are transferring assets to private custody wallets for long-term storage, reducing immediate sell pressure; on the other hand, it directly decreases the “spot supply” available on exchanges. When prices rise alongside declining exchange balances, the market is often considered healthier, as buyers are actively absorbing sell orders rather than panicking.

Deeply analyzing holder structure, fresh buying power is entering. According to Glassnode, the proportion of “short-term holders” (addresses holding coins for less than 155 days) has increased from 1.97% to 2.46% over the past week. This indicates that during recent price rises, a new group of buyers has entered to absorb supply. Despite Bitcoin being at a relatively high level, they still choose to buy, showing confidence in the short-term bullish outlook. This upward momentum driven by short-term holders, supported by ETF institutional funds and long-term holders locking in positions (via exchange outflows), tends to be more sustainable. Currently, demand from ETFs (institutions), exchange withdrawals (long-term/large holders), and short-term holders (retail traders/new entrants) form a combined force, creating an exceptionally solid buyer’s market structure.

Bitcoin at $100,000? Technical Analysis and Outlook

Supported by strong fundamentals and on-chain data, Bitcoin’s price has made a key technical breakthrough. As of writing, Bitcoin trades around $93,900, continuing the upward momentum of the past three days. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has recently broken out of a “descending wedge” pattern, a common bullish continuation formation. Based on this pattern, the upside target after breakout can be estimated near $101,700, about 8% above current levels.

In the short term, key resistance levels are in the $95,000–$96,000 range. If the price can break through and stabilize above this zone, it will pave the way toward $98,000 and the psychological $100,000 mark. The buying power created by ETF capital inflows is the main driver pushing the price toward these resistance levels. However, investors should remain cautious, as a technical correction may be needed after a continuous rally. If the price encounters strong selling pressure near $95,000 and momentum stalls, a pullback to around $91,500 support could occur. As long as this support holds, the overall bullish structure remains intact.

Overall, this early 2026 rally led by institutional capital is more solid than a mere speculative surge. The massive ETF inflows, ongoing net withdrawals from exchanges, and active participation of short-term holders collectively depict a market with strong demand and limited supply. Although short-term volatility is inevitable, the market phase may have shifted from the “consolidation and depletion” of Q4 2025 to “accumulation and growth.” For market participants, focusing on buying opportunities at key support levels during pullbacks and monitoring ETF capital flow sustainability will be crucial in the coming weeks. If inflows remain stable or grow modestly, the narrative of Bitcoin challenging and breaking through $100,000 will gain unprecedented real support.

What is a Bitcoin Spot ETF and How Does It Work?

A Bitcoin spot ETF is a fund listed on traditional stock exchanges that directly tracks the spot price of Bitcoin. Unlike the earlier Bitcoin futures ETF, which tracks futures contracts, the spot ETF’s core mechanism is the “physical creation and redemption process”: authorized participants (usually large market makers or institutions) can deliver a basket of cash to the ETF issuer, which then uses that cash to purchase an equivalent amount of Bitcoin stored in cold wallets managed by a compliant custodian (e.g., Coinbase Custody). The ETF then creates new shares for secondary trading. Conversely, when redeeming, shares are destroyed, and Bitcoin is returned. This mechanism ensures ETF shares are backed by real Bitcoin, directly channeling mainstream market funds into the spot Bitcoin market, marking a milestone in the mainstreaming of crypto assets.

How Do Institutional Funds Affect Cryptocurrency Market Cycles?

Institutional capital profoundly alters the cycle characteristics of the crypto market. In the absence of institutions, market cycles are mainly driven by retail sentiment and leveraged speculation, resulting in “short bull, long bear” and “rapid surges and crashes.” With the emergence of Grayscale GBTC and later spot ETFs, the market has introduced long-term, large-scale allocation funds. These funds tend to behave “counter-cyclically”: during panic-driven declines (e.g., ongoing outflows), they may gradually exit or wait on the sidelines, but their large holdings provide a bottom support; during recovery phases, their rational and sustained buying based on asset allocation needs can extend uptrends and smooth volatility. The current rebound driven by ETF capital inflows exemplifies the dual role of institutional funds as “stabilizers” and “accelerators,” making market movements increasingly influenced by macro liquidity, traditional asset performance, and regulatory policies.