Bernstein's blockbuster prediction: Launching the "Tokenization Super Cycle" in 2026, Bitcoin aims for $200,000

Wall Street’s well-known broker Bernstein releases a 2026 crypto market outlook report, boldly predicting the launch of a “Tokenization Supercycle” driven by stablecoins, tokenized capital, and prediction markets. The report assesses that the crypto market bottomed out at the end of 2025 and sets Bitcoin target prices for 2026 and 2027 at $150,000 and $200,000 respectively.

Analysis indicates that crypto-related stocks represented by Robinhood and Coinbase will become the core beneficiaries of this cycle, while the forecast of a 56% increase in stablecoin supply and doubling of on-chain tokenized asset values mark a shift of cryptocurrencies from speculative assets to practical tools for building a new generation of financial infrastructure.

Market Bottomed Out: Bernstein Sets the Tone for the 2026 Crypto Bull Market

After experiencing turbulence and a correction at the end of 2025, the crypto market received a heavyweight confidence endorsement from traditional finance at the start of the new year. Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein’s latest report explicitly states that they “have reason to believe that Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have bottomed out,” and considers the Bitcoin near $80,000 low in late November last year as a potential bottom of this cycle. This judgment marks a key shift in market sentiment, suggesting that the most panic-driven sell-off phase may be over, paving the way for structural upward movement.

Bernstein’s view is not isolated. At the time of the report’s release, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $92,000, and several analysis firms including Fundstrat observed weakening downside momentum. Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion and the reduction of the US Treasury general account funds have improved liquidity conditions, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is attempting to challenge the key resistance at $94,000 after holding the short-term support at $91,400, with technical recovery and macro liquidity environment warming resonating.

Importantly, Bernstein strongly refutes market over-concern about the traditional “four-year cycle” peaking. The report emphasizes that the main driving forces of the current market have shifted from retail speculation to institutional adoption, propelled by a “digital asset revolution” driven by tokenization and regulated financial infrastructure, expanding the time and space dimensions of this bull market beyond historical patterns. This means the fundamental logic driving the market has fundamentally changed, and relying solely on historical price cycles may no longer be effective.

Analyzing the “Tokenization Supercycle”: Three Pillars Driving the Future

The core argument of Bernstein’s report is that the upward trend in 2026 will not be dominated solely by monetary narratives but will be driven by a solid “Tokenization Supercycle.” This supercycle manifests in three closely related and mutually reinforcing areas, collectively forming the blueprint of next-generation financial infrastructure.

Pillar One: Stablecoins — From Trading Tools to Mainstream Payments and Banking Infrastructure

Stablecoins are no longer just a medium of exchange within crypto exchanges. Bernstein expects their application to penetrate widely into mainstream commercial payments and banking services. The report forecasts that the total global stablecoin supply will grow by 56% year-over-year in 2026, reaching approximately $420 billion. The growth drivers are clear: widespread adoption by fintech companies like Block, Revolut, and PayPal, as well as solutions for cross-border corporate payments, consumer remittances, and new stablecoin banking. For example, Visa has enabled enterprise cross-border payments to creators and freelancers via USDC through its Visa Direct network.

This “invasion” into mainstream finance is triggering a quiet underlying revolution. Payment giants Visa and Mastercard have already acted—not resisted—by deeply integrating stablecoins as efficient “settlement plugins” within their networks. Visa supports USDC settlement via the Solana network, with an annualized settlement volume rate exceeding $3.5 billion; Mastercard, through partnerships with Ripple and others, is building a flexible “compliance connectivity layer.” Their strategic goal is to control the future settlement layer worth $40 trillion, ensuring they remain at the core of fund flows under any technological paradigm.

Pillar Two: Tokenization of Real-World Assets — A Valuation Leap into the Hundred-Billion Market

RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization involves converting rights to traditional financial assets like bonds, funds, and real estate into digital tokens on the blockchain. Bernstein is highly optimistic about this sector, projecting that the total value of tokenized assets locked on-chain will more than double in 2026, rising from about $37 billion in 2025 to approximately $80 billion.

This process signifies a paradigm shift in capital markets. Tokenization automates and transparently streamlines issuance, trading, settlement, and management of assets, greatly improving efficiency and lowering barriers. It enables high-value assets previously lacking liquidity or difficult to subdivide (such as private equity or art) to be traded more broadly. The report highlights companies like Figure as key “tokenization agents,” underscoring the strategic importance of this sector in investment banking.

Pillar Three: Prediction Markets — A Growth Engine in the Hundred-Billion Scale

As another frontier of tokenized applications, decentralized prediction markets are given significant importance in the report. Bernstein predicts that the total trading volume in this segment could double in 2026, reaching about $70 billion. Based on average contract fees, this could generate approximately $1.4 billion annually for market makers and exchanges.

The explosive growth of prediction markets fundamentally involves assetizing information and viewpoints, harnessing global wisdom capital. They currently play roles in native crypto domains (such as protocol governance outcomes and market events), and in the future, they are likely to expand into broader social events like sports, entertainment, and elections, becoming a vast alternative data and financial derivatives market.

Key Beneficiaries: Repricing of Crypto Stocks and Bitcoin Proxy Assets

Within the grand narrative of the “Tokenization Supercycle,” Bernstein clearly points out the core targets investors should focus on. The report lists Robinhood, Coinbase, Figure, and Circle as the “best tokenization proxies,” rating them as “beat the market.” They represent key segments: retail entry points, integrated trading and institutional infrastructure, RWA innovation, and stablecoin issuance, forming an investment portfolio to capture the value premiums of this cycle.

The report also pays special attention to a typical “Bitcoin proxy asset” — Strategy. Analysts note that as Bitcoin’s price recovers and concerns about its potential exclusion from MSCI indices ease, Strategy’s stock price relative to its net asset value is expected to strongly revert from the current low of about 1.02x to the historical average of 1.57x. This judgment is based on the direct uplift from Bitcoin price increases and the reevaluation of its unique business model’s attractiveness in a bull market environment.

Potential Risks and Future Outlook

Despite the optimistic outlook, Bernstein’s report does not ignore risks. It has lowered the target prices for Circle and Coinbase, reflecting cautious assessments of some companies’ short-term profitability paths. More broadly, the entire crypto industry still faces several key hurdles on its path to mainstream adoption:

1. Complex and uneven global regulation: Regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, tokenized assets, and other innovations are still evolving, and policy uncertainty remains a major obstacle for institutional deployment.
2. Technological maturity and interoperability: Current blockchain networks still have limitations in throughput, costs, and interoperability, requiring ongoing upgrades (such as Ethereum’s continuous scaling) to support trillions of dollars in asset flows.
3. Market volatility and credit risk: The inherent volatility of crypto markets persists, and emerging DeFi protocols or centralized service providers may face smart contract vulnerabilities or credit events, potentially impacting market confidence.

Conclusion: From Cycle Narratives to Value Creation Narratives

Bernstein’s 2026 outlook’s core contribution is a critical narrative shift: moving the market focus from retrospective “halving cycles” to a substantive outlook on the “Value Creation Cycle.” The “Tokenization Supercycle” is not an illusory concept but a tangible trend composed of quantifiable and trackable indicators such as stablecoin payment flows, hundreds of billions of dollars in on-chain assets, and prediction market trading volumes.

For investors, this means their evaluation frameworks need upgrading. Beyond monitoring Bitcoin’s hash rate and ETF fund flows, they should pay attention to USDC settlement growth on Solana, the assets under management of the BlackRock USD institutional digital liquidity fund (BUIDL), and active user numbers in major prediction markets. By 2026, the story of cryptocurrencies will be written more by compliant financial engineers, multinational corporate finance executives, and mainstream financial product managers. As payments, bonds, and derivatives become commonplace on-chain, what we are talking about will no longer be an edge case of speculative markets but a new, rapidly evolving financial system itself.