ETF Bitcoin "open-close" fluctuations, three scenarios for Bitcoin's next all-time high?

The path for Bitcoin to return to its all-time high and enter a new price discovery phase is increasingly dependent on whether capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs can be sustained sustainably, after the two-way start of 2026 – a period that has tested the “rootedness” of institutional demand in the post-ETF era.

From December 15 to 31, 2025, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $1.29 billion. This development indicates that capital withdrawal can be rapid even at the end of the year.

The first full trading week of January 2026 continued to show a “risk-off” sentiment, with spot Bitcoin ETFs withdrawing an additional $681 million. Several sessions recorded significant negative cash flows, including:

• 1/7: -486.1 million USD
• 1/8: -398.8 million USD
• 1/9: -250.0 million USD

The rapid reversal between inflows and outflows suggests that the ETF channel can reopen very quickly when risk appetite increases, but can also close just as abruptly when market sentiment weakens.

A Burst and Reversal Session

The strongest inflow session at the start of 2026 occurred on 1/14, with approximately $840.6 million flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs, amid Bitcoin trading above $97,000.

However, this positive momentum did not last. In four sessions from 1/20 to 1/23, the market experienced approximately $1.32 billion in net withdrawals, with a single day on 1/21 losing as much as $708.7 million. This latest development serves as an important test of whether new fund issuance can be sustained or if it’s merely a short-term “price chasing” move.

The ETF Era Is Changing Market Dynamics

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 marks a significant structural change. Unlike previous futures-based ETFs, current capital flows reflect genuine demand through a tightly regulated investment vehicle.

For traders trying to pinpoint the next all-time high, the big question is: will this shift diminish the influence of the traditional halving cycle?

It’s clear that ETFs have altered the speed and transparency of portfolio rebalancing activities, as capital now reacts more to macroeconomic conditions rather than creating trends on its own.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025, amid a strong US stock market rally and ETF capital inflows as the US dollar weakened. This peak still falls within the timeframe where previous cycles typically saw peaks after halving events.

Macroeconomic Factors Are Shaping the Context

According to the Fed’s H.4.1 weekly report ending 1/21/2026:

• “Securities held outright”: approximately $6.285 trillion USD
• “Bank reserve credit”: approximately $6.532 trillion USD

While these figures are not directly correlated one-to-one with Bitcoin’s price, in the ETF era, they help sketch the liquidity environment – a key factor in whether ETF capital continues to flow in or reverses, especially around policy meetings.

The upcoming FOMC meeting is scheduled for 1/27–28/2026, with policy statements released at 2 p.m. (ET) on 1/28. CME’s FedWatch tool currently indicates a 97% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady. This creates a short-term test: will the strong capital inflow in January mark the start of a sustained new cycle, or is it just a brief “price chase” before capital withdraws again?

Three Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Next All-Time High

Based on current data, three main scenarios can be envisioned.

Scenario 1: Stable Liquidity, Sustained ETF Capital Flows

If macro liquidity remains stable and ETF capital shifts from sporadic explosive sessions to a multi-week net inflow trend, Bitcoin could reach a new high during 2026–2027.

A key activation factor is sustainability: repeated positive cash flow sessions without rapid reversals caused by multi-day withdrawals, along with a stable interest rate outlook around Fed meetings.

The BTC/NASDAQ ratio is currently at 3.4, down from about 4.8 in October 2025 when Bitcoin peaked. This indicates Bitcoin is in a relatively weaker risk position compared to the previous peak.

Scenario 2: Cycle Still Exists but “Re-parameterized”

In this scenario, the traditional cycle persists but is adjusted by capital flows from the traditional financial system. The new peak could arrive later, closer to the pre-halving level of 2028.

Evidence lies in the “two-way” behavior of capital: sharp withdrawals at the end of 2025, continued withdrawals early 2026, followed by a strategic strong session, then returning to a withdrawal trend at the end of January. Price discovery then becomes a conditional event: not only must the October 2025 peak be broken, but there must also be confirmation that ETF capital no longer quickly reverses in “risk-off” weeks.

Scenario 3: Deep Corrections Remain a Real Risk

Bitcoin’s history includes sharp declines from peaks to troughs: -76.67% during 2021–2022, and many previous cycles saw declines exceeding -80%.

In a macro shock scenario forcing risk assets to reduce leverage, ETFs may alter the speed and liquidity of distribution, but do not eliminate the risk of deep corrections. In such cases, the timing of a new peak will depend more on the market’s “reset” level before entering a new accumulation phase.

Reference Milestones from Organizational Forecasts

Standard Chartered currently projects Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, significantly below the previous target of $300,000. This price level requires the market to surpass the October 2025 peak and maintain stability above it.

What’s different in this cycle is that everything can be monitored almost in real-time:

• Daily through the resilience of ETF capital flows
• Weekly through Fed balance sheet data
• Continuously through interest rate expectations

The immediate test for this entire analytical framework will come at 2 a.m. on 1/29, when the Fed announces its new policy statement.