Renowned investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch has pointed out that Bitcoin may be entering a multi-month downward cycle, with the market potentially heading into a "crypto winter" as early as 2026. Unlike previous cycles, this correction is unlikely to be accompanied by massive liquidations or systemic collapses, as the driving force in the market is shifting from retail investors to institutions.
Cycle Forecast: Winter Is Coming, But the Nature Has Changed
Cantor Fitzgerald’s latest report makes it clear that the crypto market may be entering a new downturn. According to analyst Brett Knoblauch, the price of Bitcoin has been declining for about 85 days since its recent peak and may remain under pressure for several more months. Notably, Bitcoin’s price once dipped below $87,000 and is currently fluctuating around this critical level.
The report specifically notes that Bitcoin’s price could even test the average cost basis of around $75,000 held by the company Strategy. This threshold is seen as a key indicator of overall market sentiment.
Market Transformation: From Retail Sentiment to Institutional Logic
The most fundamental difference in this cycle is the shift in market leadership. The Cantor report highlights that institutions, not retail investors, are now driving the market, and the "disconnect" between token prices and on-chain fundamentals is widening. As institutional capital becomes the dominant force, the market’s pricing mechanism is moving from a "narrative-driven, sentiment-based" phase to one that is "liquidity-driven and macro-focused." New demand is increasingly coming from institutional investors whose core logic centers on asset allocation and risk budgeting, rather than from emotion-driven retail traders.
This structural change is reflected in the numbers: by the end of 2025, the total global crypto market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion for the first time, and assets under management in crypto-related ETFs exceeded $130 billion.
On-Chain Development: DeFi and Asset Tokenization Defy the Downturn
Even as token prices face pressure, on-chain activity remains robust. Decentralized finance (DeFi), asset tokenization, and crypto infrastructure continue to advance. Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization stands at the heart of this trend. In 2025, the total value of on-chain tokenized RWAs (excluding stablecoins) grew to around $33 billion. Tokenized U.S. Treasury products have led this growth, with institutional offerings like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI platform driving expansion in the sector.
Another notable trend is the evolution of decentralized exchanges. Industry forecasts suggest that the perpetual DEX market will continue to consolidate, with platforms such as Hyperliquid expected to maintain their leading positions.
Regulatory Turning Point: Clearer Policies Lower Barriers for Institutions
The passage of the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) is seen as a pivotal moment. This legislation clarifies when digital assets are considered securities or commodities and delineates the responsibilities of key regulatory agencies. In July 2025, the signing of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for United States Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) established the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. Regulatory clarity has significantly lowered the barriers for institutional entry into the crypto market. For institutional capital, uncertainty itself is a cost, and regulatory ambiguity often translates into unquantifiable tail risks.
Globally, Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance officially took effect on August 1, 2025, bringing fiat-backed stablecoins under a licensing regime. In Japan, the 2026 fiscal year tax reform outline proposes gradually positioning crypto assets as "financial products that help citizens build wealth," with discussions underway to lower related tax rates.
Outlook: Structural Opportunities Amid the Crypto Winter
The Cantor report concludes that while a new bull market may not arrive in 2026, the crypto industry is steadily becoming more institutionalized, compliant, and infrastructure-rich even as prices cool. Industry research suggests several clear trends for digital assets in 2026. Asset tokenization is accelerating across the board, and large-scale on-chain securities issuance is set to become a major industry milestone.
Additionally, stablecoins as on/off-ramp infrastructure will undergo a comprehensive upgrade, further integrating with the traditional financial system. Banks and major financial institutions will leverage stablecoins for more product innovation and business expansion. The convergence of AI and blockchain will also accelerate, with AI agents expected to evolve into autonomous on-chain actors capable of executing complex financial operations within smart contract frameworks.
Investor Strategies: Navigating a Potential Crypto Winter
For Gate users, understanding these structural market changes is more important than simply predicting price movements. Focus on core assets like BTC and ETH. Industry surveys indicate that, even as global liquidity recovers, capital will continue to concentrate on these high-quality core assets. Shift some attention away from short-term price swings and toward on-chain fundamentals. Metrics such as actual DeFi protocol usage, the growth rate of RWAs, and stablecoin on-chain flows may provide a truer picture of the industry’s health than token prices alone.
As staking enters the "institutional era," digital asset trusts and ETFs are becoming mainstream. Investors can gain crypto exposure through these compliant products while reducing operational and custody risks.
When Bitcoin dips below $87,000 again at the end of 2025, the market’s focus will no longer be solely on price charts. The average cost basis of Bitcoin held by Strategy—around $75,000—may become a new litmus test for market sentiment. Beneath the surface of price stagnation, institutional investors are steadily accumulating through compliant channels, DeFi protocol daily trading volumes are quietly hitting record highs, and the scale of RWA tokenization is expanding at triple-digit annual growth rates. The crypto market is undergoing a transformation akin to an ecosystem in metamorphosis: the apparent stillness of winter above ground conceals vigorous growth beneath the surface. The depth of this structural shift may far exceed what price volatility alone can reveal.
