A recent concern circulating in the Bitcoin market is that advances in quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s cryptographic security and potentially undermine its function as a store of value.
According to a new report from global digital asset management firm CoinShares, this risk is significantly overstated. Only about 10,200 Bitcoins face a risk that could cause substantial disruption in the market, which is just around 0.05% of the total supply.
Risk Reassessment
The threat posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin has recently become a focal point in institutional investor discussions. In January, Jefferies investment bank analyst Christopher Wood removed the entire 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio due to concerns about quantum risks. Wood noted that while he doesn’t expect quantum issues to dramatically impact Bitcoin’s price in the short term, the concept of Bitcoin as a store of value is no longer solid enough for long-term retirement portfolios.
This decision cited a widely circulated study. In May 2025, researchers at Chaincode Labs estimated that between 20% and 50% of circulating Bitcoins might be vulnerable to quantum key extraction techniques.
Precise Analysis
CoinShares’ report directly challenges this estimate, arguing that these figures conflate fundamentally different risk categories. The firm narrows its analysis to traditional "pay-to-public-key" (P2PK) addresses, where public keys are permanently stored on the blockchain and are theoretically more susceptible to future quantum attacks.
CoinShares estimates that roughly 1.6 million Bitcoins are stored in P2PK addresses, accounting for about 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply. However, the key point is that only around 10,200 Bitcoins are held in sufficiently large addresses where theft could trigger "noticeable market turmoil."
The remaining Bitcoins are spread across more than 32,000 individual UTXOs, with each UTXO holding an average of just 50 Bitcoins. The report notes that even in the most optimistic quantum computing scenarios, cracking these scattered, small UTXOs would take an extremely long time.
Diverging Industry Perspectives
There are significant differences in how the market perceives quantum threats, directly influencing institutional decisions and market sentiment:
| Perspective | Representative Institutions/Individuals | Core Position | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Warning Camp | Chaincode Labs researchers, some institutional investors | Believe 20%-50% of Bitcoins face quantum risk, calling it an "existential threat" | Leads some institutions to reduce or liquidate Bitcoin holdings |
| Rational Analysis Camp | CoinShares, Blockstream CEO Adam Back | Actual risk is overstated; only about 0.05% of supply faces real market disruption | Provides data-driven support, alleviates excessive market panic |
| Market Misinterpretation Case | Galaxy Digital | Clarifies that $9 billion Bitcoin sale was unrelated to quantum concerns, correcting rumors | Shows that large transactions are sometimes wrongly attributed to quantum risk |
Galaxy Digital recently clarified that its client’s $9 billion Bitcoin sale was unrelated to quantum computing risks, correcting a misunderstanding in the market.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back takes an even more optimistic view, stating that it will be at least 20 to 40 years before quantum computing poses a real threat to Bitcoin.
Technical Barriers
From a technical standpoint, the ability of quantum computing to threaten Bitcoin’s security has been greatly overestimated. The CoinShares report points out a vast gap between the power of today’s most advanced quantum computers and what’s required to break Bitcoin’s encryption. To crack a single public key in one day would require a fault-tolerant quantum computer with 13 million physical qubits—about 100,000 times more powerful than the largest quantum computers currently available.
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet explained to CoinShares: "Breaking current asymmetric encryption would require millions of quantum bits. Google’s Willow computer only has 105 qubits. And with every additional qubit, the challenge of maintaining system stability increases exponentially." To break a key in one hour, the hardware would need to be about 3 million times more powerful than what exists today. These numbers make it clear that quantum computing is not an imminent threat to Bitcoin.
Governance Debate
Faced with potential quantum threats, the Bitcoin community is divided on how to respond. Some prominent figures, including cypherpunk Jameson Lopp, advocate for a soft fork to destroy Bitcoins vulnerable to quantum attacks.
CoinShares takes the opposite stance, arguing that destroying Bitcoins simply because their holders are inactive would violate Bitcoin’s property rights principles. "I believe the idea of destroying Bitcoins that don’t belong to you is fundamentally at odds with the spirit of Bitcoin," wrote Christopher Bendiksen, Head of Bitcoin Research at CoinShares, in a relevant report last August.
CoinShares also cautions against adopting quantum-safe address formats prematurely, warning that early implementation could introduce serious vulnerabilities and waste development resources. Instead, the firm recommends a gradual transition strategy.
Market and Future Outlook
CoinShares released its report during a period of market turbulence. Bitcoin’s price has fallen nearly 50% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000. Concerns over quantum threats have contributed to recent price volatility.
Despite market fluctuations, investment in quantum-resistant technologies is accelerating. For example, Project Eleven recently completed a $20 million Series A round at a $120 million valuation, aiming to build post-quantum tools for crypto networks.
Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions are also paying attention. A 2025 Federal Reserve research report introduced the "collect now, decrypt later" risk concept, noting that while crypto networks can deploy post-quantum cryptography to protect network security, previously recorded transaction data remains vulnerable to future quantum computers.
On the Ethereum side, co-founder Vitalik Buterin has stated that blockchains should proactively address emerging quantum threats rather than waiting until the last minute. The Ethereum Foundation has recently established a dedicated post-quantum security team.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $70,722.2 on Gate, up 1.98% in the past 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of $800.61 million. According to market analysis, Bitcoin’s average price is projected to reach $70,791.3 by the end of 2026, with a range between $57,340.95 and $91,320.77. In the long term, Bitcoin’s price could reach $149,511.29 by 2031.
As the shadow of quantum threats is gradually dispelled by rational analysis, Bitcoin’s network continues to evolve technologically. From P2PK to more secure address formats, and from traditional encryption to post-quantum cryptography, each technical upgrade tests the resilience of this decentralized system.
