CryptoQuant CEO: The four-year cycle is difficult to replicate, and the buying levels of ETF and MSTR may determine market momentum.

According to ChainCatcher news, Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on the X platform: “I have given up predicting Bitcoin prices, but I have not given up analyzing data,” and released Bitcoin data analysis: selling pressure outweighs demand, leverage remains high; if ETF/MSTR resumes net buying, momentum may restart. Specifically: the average cost across the network is $55,900, with an average unrealized gain of ~+93%; this week Realized Cap increased by $8B, on-chain inflow remains strong, but prices are suppressed by selling pressure. Incremental buying is concentrated in ETF/treasuries; Binance traders and miners have a cost of about $56K (unrealized gains nearly doubled), with increased willingness to cash out. The “multiple difference” between market capitalization and realized market capitalization has moderately expanded, and has not yet reached extreme exuberance. The inflow of BTC from spot to futures has significantly decreased, with high conviction long positions reducing; leverage remains higher than two years ago after liquidation, and volatility risk persists. Computing power has reached an all-time high (about 5.96 million ASICs), and listed mining companies continue to expand, with long-term fundamentals leaning bullish. ETF and Strategy have recently slowed net buying; if the pace resumes, market momentum is likely to return. Ki pointed out that incremental liquidity is more diverse, making it difficult for Bitcoin to completely follow the traditional four-year cycle.