Venezuela Raid Event Turns Mysterious Wallets into $630K Profit, Prompting Crypto Community to Think: Can We Track the Next “Insider Trader”? The answer is yes, and it’s simpler than you think. This article reveals how to use AI tools and public data to systematically discover opportunities in market prediction. The article is based on a piece by Tree Finance, organized, compiled, and written by Foresight News.

(Background recap: US lawmakers propose legislation to ban civil servants from using prediction markets for “insider trading”! Polymarket suspected of data leak to arrest Maduro plan)

(Additional background: In-depth analysis of Polymarket whale’s high win rate illusion, hedging arbitrage is far more complex than you imagine)

Table of Contents

• Public Secrets: Everyone Can Be a Detective

• From Passive Tracking to Active Hunting

• Big Opportunities in Niche Markets

• The Tool Revolution: AI Era Prediction Markets

After news spread that three mysterious wallets made $630K from the Venezuela raid, the entire crypto community is asking the same question: Can we track down the next “insider trader”?

The answer is: Yes. And it’s much easier than you think.

Public Secrets: Everyone Can Be a Detective

This may sound ironic. The traders on Polymarket who seem to have insider information, every transaction they make is actually public. Blockchain transparency means that as long as you know where and how to look, you can track abnormal fund flows.

Even more ironically, Polymarket’s API key is completely public. This means anyone can access the data and build their own monitoring system. In this era of widespread AI programming tools, you don’t even need to be a seasoned programmer: just know how to use Claude, ChatGPT, or GitHub Copilot, and you can set up your own “insider trading” tracker.

Tools like Polysights are already doing this. They analyze on-chain data to identify wallets with obvious “insider features.” What are these features? Think about the three wallets involved in the Venezuela event: newly created, participating in very few markets, large single bets, and hitting the target precisely.

A typical suspicious wallet profile looks like this: registered less than a day ago, betting on only two or three very specific events, with single bets over $10,000, and positioning itself hours to days before the event occurs. This behavior is starkly different from ordinary gamblers (who usually diversify across multiple markets, have longer account histories, and higher transaction frequency).

But here’s a paradox: when you find a suspicious insider wallet, it’s often already too late. They’ve already placed their bets. If you follow, you’re just sharing the remaining odds. The real opportunity is to detect signals before they act, or even better, to predict the event itself through other public information.

From Passive Tracking to Active Hunting

This leads to a bigger game: how to systematically discover opportunities on Polymarket? Are those who got rich from the Venezuela event truly insiders, or just good at leveraging public information?

The answer might be both. Returning to the pizza index story: when pizzint.watch shows a surge in foot traffic near the Pentagon, that information is fully public. Anyone can see it. The difference is, some see it and act, some see it and ignore, some see it but don’t react, and others see it and immediately bet on Polymarket.

This reveals the essence of prediction markets: they are not gambling but an information pricing mechanism. The faster you gather information, interpret signals accurately, and act decisively, the more profit you can make. It’s not about luck but about a complete methodology:

• Risk Management: Don’t invest more than 70% of your total capital in a single event. Use limit orders to control risk—if you estimate a 45% chance for an outcome but the market only offers 25% odds, that’s when you should heavily bet.

• Building Information Sources: Professional players set price alerts to get immediate notifications via Telegram when abnormal market movements occur. They subscribe to weak signal alerts to catch small-probability events before they attract market attention.

• Psychological Preparation: Record your decision reasons before each trade, review afterward. Distinguish whether your success was due to strategy or luck. Rest after big wins or losses to avoid emotional trading.

Big Opportunities in Niche Markets

True winners often don’t compete in popular markets. When everyone is betting on the US elections or Bitcoin prices, the real Alpha lies in less liquid, low-attention niche markets.

These markets have the advantage of more obvious information asymmetry. Someone focused on a specific industry might understand the political situation of a small country or a policy trend better than the market as a whole. With fewer participants, your judgments are more likely to be reflected in prices.

But niche markets also have pitfalls. If you can’t explain why the market assigns a certain odds, it’s probably not the market that’s wrong, but your lack of information. Additionally, there’s an overlooked strategy: Don’t rely solely on speculation.

2. Cross-platform Arbitrage: When Kalshi, Predictit, and Polymarket give different odds on the same event, riskless arbitrage opportunities arise.

3. News Reaction Speed: Subscribe to RSS feeds, Twitter lists, Discord channels to ensure you can react within seconds after breaking news.

The Tool Revolution: AI Era Prediction Markets

Now let’s return to the initial question: should you build your own monitoring tools?

The answer is yes. The real value lies in systematically analyzing data to discover market patterns. You can build intelligent alert systems to track wallets that meet certain conditions—not to follow them, but to understand how markets respond.

A more advanced approach is to develop predictive models. Even if your models are imperfect, the process of building them forces you to think more deeply about probabilities. But all these tools and strategies ultimately boil down to one core principle: accept mistakes quickly. When the market proves your judgment wrong, don’t stubbornly hold on—exit immediately.

The three wallets that made a fortune in the Venezuela event prove one thing: in an era of information democratization, opportunities are equal, but the ability to seize them is not. You can access the same data, use the same tools, see the same signals, but ultimately, the outcome depends on how you organize this information, how you manage risk, and most importantly—when opportunities arise, whether you dare to bet.

That’s the game rule of Polymarket. It rewards not the smartest, but those who are smart, decisive, and disciplined.