Gate News: On March 23, U.S. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, he warned of strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure. As a result, global oil prices experienced sharp fluctuations, with Brent crude rising to $112.42 and WTI crude at $98.51. Market concerns over disruptions in Middle Eastern supply continue to intensify.
Iran quickly responded, with Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stating that if Iran’s power grid is attacked, energy and water facilities in the Gulf region will become “legitimate targets.” Currently, the Strait of Hormuz still restricts most commercial shipping, and this passage accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation. Any blockade could amplify supply shocks.
Institutions are further raising market expectations. Goldman Sachs has raised its short-term target price for Brent crude to $110 and warned that if the flow through the strait remains low over the coming weeks, oil prices could approach or even surpass the 2008 high of $147. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, stated that the severity of this crisis may exceed the combined impact of past oil shocks.
Structural divergence in energy markets is becoming more apparent. Currently, the Brent-WTI spread has widened to over $14, reaching multi-year highs, reflecting that seaborne crude oil is more sensitive to geopolitical risks. Energy Aspects analyst Amrita Sen believes that U.S. domestic supply and strategic reserves provide stronger buffer capacity, while other regions will face more direct impacts.
Additionally, the U.S. has coordinated with multiple countries to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilize the market, but inflationary pressures on demand remain accumulating. Gasoline and natural gas prices are rising in tandem, further increasing global economic uncertainty.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflict and energy supply tensions, oil price movements are becoming a key factor influencing inflation expectations, asset allocation, and global market volatility. (CNBC)
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