The four-year cycle comes to an end, and the crypto market begins a ten-year long battle

The past few weeks, during meetings with institutional investors, the most frequently asked question I received was: Does the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still have any reference value?

The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern of Bitcoin showing “three years of growth, the fourth year of crash.”

This question is crucial because, according to the logic of the four-year cycle, next year will be a tough year for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Although I cannot accurately predict the price movements of cryptocurrencies next year, I believe that blindly believing that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself is not wise. After all, the four-year cycle is not a divine law carved in stone; its formation is actually driven by three specific factors:

Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is halved every four years.

Interest rate fluctuations: Two spikes in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both triggered market corrections in cryptocurrencies.

Market cycles of sharp rises and falls: Years of sharp declines in cryptocurrencies (2014, 2018, 2022) all occurred immediately after strong bullish years. For example, Bitcoin rose 5530% in 2013, 1349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market frenzy, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when bubbles burst—such as the crackdown on ICOs in 2018 and the collapse of FTX in 2022—they directly triggered market crashes that year.

Today, these three major drivers have either significantly weakened in influence or are moving in completely opposite directions compared to previous cycles. The impact of Bitcoin halving is no longer as strong as four years ago; interest rates are likely to decline rather than rise in 2026; and the cryptocurrency market in 2025 has not experienced the kind of frantic surge seen in previous cycles.

Meanwhile, more decisive forces—especially the large influx of institutional investors and the gradual improvement of regulatory policies—are building momentum for 2026. In our latest “2026 Market Forecast” report, we predict that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high next year. Currently, I still believe this is the most likely outcome.

What will replace the four-year cycle?

If the four-year cycle has indeed ended, a reasonable question follows: What new framework should we establish for the cryptocurrency market in 2026 and beyond?

The four-year cycle once provided clear guidance for investors. Knowing whether the market is in a recovery phase, a bull market, or a crypto winter helped investors stay resilient during bear markets and remain rational during bull runs.

So, what kind of thinking framework can replace it now?

The answer is: a ten-year marathon.

I know, this phrase sounds far less eye-catching than the four-year cycle. But please hear me out, because I firmly believe this is the essence of the current market.

A marathon refers to the long-term tug-of-war between two forces: one is a powerful, persistent, and gradually strengthening positive driver; the other is intermittent, aggressive, but ultimately weaker negative shocks.

The positive drivers currently gathering momentum include: accelerated institutional investment, ongoing regulatory improvements, concerns over fiat currency devaluation, and the practical application scenarios of stablecoins and asset tokenization.

The goal of these trends is to revolutionize deeply rooted traditional systems such as capital markets, global payment systems, and the international monetary system. Fully realizing this transformation will take more than a decade. Early signs of this process are already visible everywhere: billions of dollars flowing into crypto ETFs, crypto-related legislation steadily advancing in Congress, the rapid expansion of stablecoins and tokenized markets, and so on.

However, progress will inevitably face resistance. Potential negative shocks include macroeconomic shocks, leveraged position liquidations, and malicious events like hacking, scams, and fund theft. The impact of such negative shocks usually lasts for weeks, months, or quarters.

Overall, the long-term influence of positive drivers far exceeds that of negative shocks, but the rapid onset of negative shocks can temporarily suppress positive momentum. The market crash on October 10, 2025, is a typical example: a macro shock triggered a massive liquidation of leveraged crypto positions, causing a sharp market decline.

This marathon pattern has created a serious divergence in the current crypto market: retail investors are deeply despairing, while many institutional investors remain bullish. The root cause lies in their vastly different time horizons. Retail investors focus on the aftermath of the October liquidation event; institutions are looking at the 2030 scenario where stablecoin assets could surpass 3 trillion dollars.

Both perspectives are reasonable, just based on different time scales.

The significance of a marathon for investors

Over the past few months, I have been analyzing the market within the “marathon” framework, and this approach has proven to be highly valuable. The marathon pattern suggests that the market will exhibit the following characteristics:

• Long-term, substantial but not exaggerated returns
• Overall volatility will decrease
• Periodic 20%–40% corrections

This means investors must take every market correction seriously, as they could last quite a long time. But as long as the fundamentals remain strong, they can be confident that prices will eventually rebound.

Looking back, I believe the crypto market officially entered the marathon phase when Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved in January 2024. This milestone sparked a wave of institutional investment, and I believe this trend will continue for a full decade. In fact, since the ETF listing, Bitcoin’s price has increased by 93%, experiencing three deep corrections of over 20% during this period.

I believe that for a long time to come, the market will maintain this kind of return pattern. The marathon may not be as thrilling as the previous cycles of rapid rises and falls, but it signifies a deeper transformation of the crypto industry. When an asset class matures, the era of a marathon has arrived. **$ETH **