#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year on Polymarket drop to 11%, I was reminded of recent conversations with several investors. Everyone is looking at data from prediction markets, which is fine in itself, but I’ve noticed many people tend to fall into a misconception — treating market probabilities as the sole basis for investment decisions.

Prediction markets do provide interesting signals, but they reflect the collective judgment of current participants, not what will necessarily happen in the future. Whether Bitcoin can rise again to $100,000 this year depends on many factors: policies, liquidity, market sentiment… any one of these could change that probability.

What I want to emphasize is that regardless of what numbers prediction markets give, our position allocation should have its own logic. If you have heavily bet on breaking $100,000 this year and see an 11% chance, it might make you feel uneasy. At this moment, the most important thing is not to follow the trend blindly, but to ask yourself: why did I set my position this way in the first place? Has my risk tolerance changed? Are other parts of my assets sufficiently safe?

In the long run, investors who can stick to proper position management and are not swayed by short-term data tend to achieve more stable returns. Prediction markets are a reference, not a guiding stick.