StallMiningGuy

#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year on Polymarket drop to 11%, I was reminded of recent conversations with several investors. Everyone is looking at data from prediction markets, which is fine in itself, but I’ve noticed many people tend to fall into a misconception — treating market probabilities as the sole basis for investment decisions.
Prediction markets do provide interesting signals, but they reflect the collective judgment of current participants, not what will necessarily happen in the future. Whether Bitcoin can rise again to $100,000 this year depend

#美联储政策 The Federal Reserve Chair candidate is about to be announced, and the policy directions in the coming weeks are indeed worth paying attention to. But what I want to say is that regardless of who ultimately takes office, this is not a variable we can control — what we can truly master are our own position management and mindset.
Major policy changes like these often lead to market volatility. I have seen too many investors hurriedly adjust in the face of uncertainty, only to trap themselves. Instead of guessing the new chair’s policy tendencies, it’s better to ask yourself: Can my asset

#加密货币监管政策 Seeing the recent regulatory developments, I feel a bit more at ease. The State Council's crackdown on illegal virtual currency trading activities and Douyin's ban on illegal financial content packaged as blockchain concepts—these measures are actually about cleaning up the market's muddy waters.
I recall a few investors I previously interacted with, who were attracted by various "revolutionary" coin promises and ended up suffering heavy losses. Regulatory intervention may seem to restrict something, but in reality, it is about protecting us from traps disguised with high-tech appea

#预测市场 Seeing CZ's year-end remarks, some of his words have triggered my thoughts.
He said that the penetration rate of cryptocurrencies is still less than 1%, and the market size still has several orders of magnitude of growth potential—that sounds very encouraging, but I want to say that this macro growth potential is precisely the area where risks are most easily overlooked.
Market predictions are booming, AI Agent trading products are also being hotly promoted, but CZ himself made it very clear—if a strategy is truly so effective, why would the project team sell it to you? When everyone is

#稳定币市场竞争与发展 Seeing the recent discussions in the stablecoin market reminded me of a common misconception among many investors.
People often focus on the high returns of new products but overlook an essential issue: the core value of stablecoins is "stability," not "growth." USDT and USDC are widely adopted precisely because they are sufficiently safe and reliable, and this trust has been built over many years.
Generation 1.5 products are indeed innovative, but with innovation comes risk. FDUSD is limited by fiat on-ramp friction, and while USD1 is fundamentally solid, all new things require t

#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing the story of AVA, I want to discuss a risk that is often overlooked.
23 associated wallets sniped 40% of the supply at the time of issuance, which is not an isolated phenomenon but a common hidden risk in AI token launches. What’s most concerning is that these wallets only obtained funds from top-tier exchanges shortly before going live, and the timing is too coincidental.
This incident reminds me of an important point: when AI and cryptocurrency combine, it can indeed lead to innovative applications, but it also amplifies the risk of information asymmetry. Early participant

#比特币价格走势 Seeing this wave of market rebound, many friends have asked me what I think. To be honest, I don't pay much attention to whether analysts' target prices are 106,000 or one million—these predictions are just for listening, no need to take them seriously.
The Bank of Japan's rate hike implementation has indeed broken the market's dullness, and sentiment has somewhat improved. But I want to remind everyone that a couple of positive signals often lead to a relaxed mindset, which is usually the beginning of losses. Market volatility is normal; the key is whether we have good position mana

#稳定币竞争与发展 Seeing Aave founder's plans for 2026, I am reminded of a frequently overlooked truth: true long-term value often does not lie in short-term narrative fluctuations, but in the teams that continuously refine the infrastructure.
From an early stage with less than $1 billion to now being comparable to the top 50 banks in the US, this process itself is a textbook in asset allocation. The V4 Hub & Spoke model, Horizon's focus on institutional RWA, and the Aave App's mobile interface for the general public—these are not just for hype but are gradually expanding the capacity of the financia

#证券代币化与RWA Seeing Circle launch the Arc Developer Fund to support the development of real-world financial applications, I am pondering a question—how should we balance technological innovation and asset security?
In recent years, the hype around RWA has indeed surged, with on-chain real-world assets, on-chain markets, private credit markets... all sounding very promising. But I want to remind everyone that the more cutting-edge the innovation, the greater the risk often is. I have seen too many people attracted by "new concepts" and neglect the most basic risk management.
A few honest truths:

#稳定币市场竞争 Seeing the recent news in the stablecoin sector, I have some thoughts I’d like to share with everyone.
The Circle CEO mentioned that stablecoins will experience an "explosion" in 2026, and CZ also pointed out that the industry is still in its early stages. These viewpoints all point to the same phenomenon—the stablecoin market is far from saturated. But what I want to say is that market enthusiasm often clouds our judgment.
Currently, mainstream stablecoins like USDT and USDC are quite mature but lack attractive yields. New generation stablecoin products are emerging, some with limit

#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing this case of AVA tokens, I want to discuss a recurring phenomenon. When the AI concept is combined with cryptocurrency, it often becomes a "hunting ground" for capital sniping — 23 related wallets captured 40% of the supply at launch. The underlying logic is quite simple: arbitrage opportunities created by information asymmetry.
Over the past few years, I have seen too many investors lose their judgment in the face of new concepts. The combination of AI and crypto sounds dazzling, but fundamentally, you should ask three questions: Is the token distribution transparent? Is th

#价格分析预测 Seeing the discussions about the new QE and Bitcoin target prices, I want to share some thoughts.
Market expectations are high, but reality often takes time to materialize. Arthur Hayes's analytical framework—liquidity release → fiat currency depreciation → crypto asset benefits—this logical chain is valid in itself. However, the jump from the $80,000 range to $124,000 and then to $200,000 involves too many uncertainties that need to be digested.
The most interesting detail is that, while he is bullish, he transferred 508 ETH to exchanges. This behavior of "talking bullish but selling

#比特币价格走势 Recently, I've seen various analyses about Bitcoin's prospects before 2026, and opinions are truly diverse. Some say it will hit new all-time highs, others predict it will rise to 170,000 within three months, and some believe it will drop below 60,000 in the first half of the year. This extreme divergence prompted me to share an observation.
Analyst predictions are essentially a game of probabilities; no one can accurately grasp the market. The fluctuations we see—from 126,000 in October to 84,000 in November—highlight this point. In the face of such uncertainty, more important than

#稳定币 Seeing Intuit's move, I actually feel quite reassured. A financial software giant handling over ten billion dollars in annual funds and serving more than 100 million users is seriously considering integrating stablecoin payments into TurboTax and QuickBooks. What does this indicate? It shows that the convenience and cost advantages of on-chain payments are beginning to be recognized by the mainstream financial ecosystem.
But I want to remind everyone not to be blindly optimistic just because big companies are entering the space. The expansion of stablecoin applications is a good thing; f

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Citibank's forecast that Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within the year, some investors are indeed starting to get restless. But I want to remind everyone that the same report also clearly outlines risk scenarios—potentially dropping to $78,500 in a global recession. This 62% upside expectation is separated from the pessimistic scenario by an uncertain world.
Institutional forecasts often give the illusion of a "clear direction," but the truth of the market is: even professionals use ranges to express their views, which itself indicates the presence of risk. I've seen too many p

#稳定币 Seeing Aave release its 2026 strategy, I am pondering a question: When the institutional RWA market Horizon launches, what role will stablecoins play?
From the news, Horizon allows institutions to borrow stablecoins using tokenized assets like government bonds, indicating that stablecoins are evolving from retail tools into financial infrastructure. With $75 billion in net deposits and a 52% fee share, these numbers reflect a trend—the boundaries between traditional finance and on-chain finance are blurring.
But there's a detail worth cautioning: the larger the scale, the more critical r

#稳定币发行与类型 Recently, I came across several news stories about traditional financial giants entering the stablecoin race, which left a deep impression.
Intuit integrating USDC, SoFi issuing SoFiUSD, JPMorgan launching JPM Coin... these are not minor moves. A closer look reveals a common point: they are all using stablecoins to reshape the underlying logic of payments. Whether it's for tax refunds, salaries, or corporate payments, the core demand is—faster, cheaper, more transparent.
What insights can be drawn from this? I think there are two points worth considering:
**First, the form of stable

#预测市场 Seeing CZ talk about prediction markets, I started to reflect. He said, "Teams with obvious short-term advantages may win, but true victory is achieved in long-term competition"—this sentence is a wake-up call for all investors.
Prediction markets are indeed popular, but popularity often comes with risks. I have seen too many people attracted by short-term opportunities, going all-in on a certain track, only to be caught off guard when market sentiment shifts. The issue isn't whether the track itself is good or not, but whether we truly understand what we are betting on.
The penetration

#AI基础设施投资 Seeing CZ's layout in the AI and education fields, what moved me the most wasn't how hot a particular project is, but the profound meaning behind the phrase "Keep Building."
Over the past two years, I've interacted with many investors. Many are dazzled by the hype around AI infrastructure—betting on computing power today, following a certain track tomorrow, and hurriedly cutting losses the day after. But those who truly navigate cycles are not driven by chasing hot topics; they understand the essence of the cycle.
AI infrastructure is like a long-distance run, requiring continuous r

#预测市场发展 The discussion about prediction markets has heated up again, and I want to share some thoughts with everyone.
In the past two years, prediction markets have indeed been developing rapidly. Industry leaders' view of a "super cycle" reflects the true demand of the market—people are eager to obtain information from more transparent and honest signals. I understand this logic and agree on the value of prediction markets in information discovery.
But I want to issue a warning here: opportunities and risks often coexist. When a field attracts a large influx of capital, participants' enthusi