Brief

The price of #Bitcoin is influenced by conflicting factors: on one hand — macroeconomic risks, on the other — long-term positive trends.

Geopolitical tariffs – escalation of trade disputes between the US and Europe causes short-term volatility.
Changes in demand for #CryptoMarketPullback – slowing institutional investments find support at the $92K level.
Risks among medium-term holders – the entry price into #ETF could lead to forced sales if the price drops.

Detailed Analysis

1. Geopolitical tariffs $114K Short-term negative(

Overview:
President Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on goods from the EU )from February 1, 2026( caused a 3% drop in Bitcoin to $92K, according to NewsBTC. The market accounted for liquidity tightening and liquidation of long positions totaling )million, while open interest in derivatives decreased by 15% over the month.

What it means:
Bitcoin remains a risky asset during crises and is vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. Prolonged trade conflicts could keep the price below $95K.

2. Slowing inflow of funds into ETF $875 Mixed effect(

Overview:
American spot Bitcoin ETFs control 1.51 million BTC )7.2% of the total supply(, but net fund inflows slowed to $2.3 billion per week compared to peak )billion$5 CoinDesk(. BlackRock with the IBIT fund manages assets worth )billion, but daily repurchases reach $88 million.

What it means:
Institutional demand provides support for the price, but a new impulse in ETFs is needed for recovery. Asset stability above $126 billion is critical for resuming growth.

3. Risk of capitulation among medium-term holders $120 Negative factor(

Overview:
UTXO data shows that medium-term holders )3–6 months( have an average entry price of about )— 23% above the current Bitcoin price$114K . Their position with a loss of (billion could trigger stop-sales if the price falls below $90K.

What it means:
If Bitcoin remains below $95K, patience among medium-term investors may run out, leading to mass liquidations similar to )million weekly sales at the end of 2025.

Conclusion

Further movement of Bitcoin depends on the market’s ability to withstand macroeconomic shocks and maintain liquidity through ETFs. The question is whether institutional flows can offset geopolitical instability before medium-term holders start mass selling. Watch for the recovery of $24 entry into $647 as a signal of decreasing tension.