Recently, I've seen a bunch of people using "stablecoin supply has increased / ETFs are flowing in again" to infer "so it must rise next." Frankly, correlation does not equal causation; there could be a lot of paths in between: OTC funds switching to stablecoins doesn't necessarily mean immediate buying, it could just be arbitrage, market making reserves, or even preparing leverage interest/margin first. The net inflow into ETFs is the same—on-chain, it might just be driven by sentiment, not necessarily real new capital directly hitting the spot market.

It's the same with macro stuff. Recently, there's been a lot of discussion about rate cut expectations, the dollar index, and risk assets moving together up and down, but what I care more about is: when you buy or sell, how much of your actual returns are eaten up by slippage, fees, and funding rates? Don’t let the narrative of "seems like capital is entering" obscure the hidden costs.

The information environment is too noisy. My noise-canceling strategy is simple: only focus on on-chain flows and transaction costs I can verify; treat other stories as background noise.