Trump has been convicted of all 34 counts of serious crimes. Does he still have a chance to take over the White House?

Source: Bloomberg; BBC; Decrypt, Compiled and organized by Tao Zhu, Golden Finance.

Donald Trump was found guilty of all 34 counts of forging business records in a criminal trial in Manhattan, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. This injects an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Trump has gone through two impeachments and countless other scandals, but he still leads Biden in most opinion polls.

One, is Trump’s verdict an opportunity for Biden?

Both presidential campaign strategists agree that the guilty verdict provides a new opportunity for Biden, whose lackluster performance and declining poll numbers have raised concerns among many Democratic lawmakers and party officials.

Joe Biden’s campaign director of communications, Michael Taylor, said in a statement on Thursday that this result shows “no one is above the law” and that Trump “has always mistakenly believed that he would never be punished for breaking the law for personal gain.” However, Biden also acknowledges that the legal system alone is not enough to prevent Trump from reclaiming the White House in November.

Biden said in his fundraising campaign, “There is only one way to prevent Donald Trump from taking over the White House: through the ballot box.”

Trump has been convicted of serious crimes, which provides Biden with an opportunity to refocus voters’ attention on Trump’s actions, thereby shaking up the election landscape.

“If you don’t completely rely on the verdict, it is negligence,” said Alex Conant, a senior strategist for the Republican Party and Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “I hope President Biden will make an important speech to incite Democratic officials nationwide to do everything possible to make the election a national referendum on Trump.”

Second, the story of Trump and adult actresses

American porn actress Stormy Daniels said she and Mr. Trump had an affair since 2006 and that he has tried to keep the matter low-key ever since.

Daniels is her stage name, her real name is Stephanie Clifford, born in Louisiana in 1979. Before she started directing and writing in 2004, she was an adult film actress. Daniels claims that she had a sexual encounter with Trump at a hotel during a celebrity golf tournament at Lake Tahoe, California in July 2006. Trump had already been married to Melania Trump in 2005.

Trump strongly denies having an affair with Daniels.

Due to concerns for the safety of his family, Daniels accepted a “hush money” from Trump’s personal lawyer.

Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, also confirmed that he privately paid Daniels $130,000.

Daniels pointed out that she signed the so-called “hush money” document with Trump’s lawyer Cohen shortly before the election, but Trump did not sign it, so legally it is invalid.

Will voter attitudes change?

Trump is trying to use this ruling to motivate his hardcore supporters, most of whom believe his claim that the lawsuit is politically motivated and aimed at preventing him from taking power.

“The true verdict will be made by the people on November 5th. They know what happened here,” Trump said in a brief comment to reporters outside the court.

Trump used a similar strategy last year, using the anger of Republicans towards his indictment to force his primary opponents to withdraw from the race. However, it is still unclear whether this will be effective in the general election.

Bill Clinton’s senior strategist in the 1992 presidential campaign, James Carville, said that the most important factor in a guilty verdict is that it comes from a fair jury - which may resonate with undecided voters on the edge, who typically ignore partisan messengers.

“Trump cannot win solely on his people,” Cavell said. “And this will definitely hinder everyone else.”

The investigation conducted before the verdict showed that Trump will indeed pay the price for the jury’s conclusion. The jury believed that Trump deliberately falsified business records during the 2016 presidential campaign and concealed his extramarital affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from the voters.

On May 23rd, a public opinion survey conducted by the McKate Law School found that if found guilty, Biden would lead Trump by 4 percentage points in a nationwide face-off, while if found not guilty, Trump would lead by 6 percentage points.

Whether the election will change may depend more on Biden than on Trump. At least some strategists from both parties expect that Trump’s newly acquired felon identity will have a lasting impact - provided that Biden and his campaign team can emphasize this conviction to those who are mostly indifferent to national affairs.

Trump’s campaign team also faces some practical issues, as they have been hoping to increase travel to battleground states without being limited by court schedules. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee.

After the verdict was announced, evidence of internal disputes has come to light. Trump’s representatives clashed with former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who is currently running as the Republican candidate for the state’s U.S. Senate, on social media. Earlier, Hogan urged Americans to “respect the verdict and the legal process.”

“The title of “felon” will make those low-biased, low-information voters feel uneasy, and they are the reason why Trump is currently leading.”

Despite the Trump campaign team publicly claiming not to be concerned about the trial, Trump has privately expressed to allies and advisors that he does not want to become a felon.

Four, Trump’s Response

Prosecutors allege that Trump instructed Cohen before the 2016 election to pay adult movie star Stormie Daniels $130,000 to stop her from going public what she said was sexual contact between them. Prosecutors argue that Mr. Trump repaid Mr. Cohen for hush money and that several payments for “legal services” were recorded in the company’s books. Trump’s team claims the money was actually used for legal work. **

Trump denied all charges and called the trial “rigged”.

Trump also called on donors to donate to his struggling presidential campaign.

“They searched my home, arrested me, took my photos, and now they just convicted me guilty!” stated a fundraising appeal. “Before today ends, I appeal to ten million patriotic supporters of Trump to donate.”

In recent weeks, Trump’s fundraising efforts have achieved several victories, including $76 million raised in April, $25 million more than Biden raised that month. He has also gained support from billionaire Miriam Adelson and Steve Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone Group, the two largest Republican donors. Trump also raised $40 million in campaign events in Texas, with the majority coming from executives in the oil and gas industry, including Harold Hamm, Chairman of Continental Resources.

5. The Reaction of the Traditional Financial and Cryptocurrency Markets

The judgment of Trump has not yet affected Wall Street.

From round-the-clock currency trading to after-hours stock trading, most financial assets (excluding Trump Media Technology Group’s stocks) remained stable after a New York jury ruled that all 34 charges against Trump were guilty.

But for traders, the question now is how this decision will affect the market, which has already begun to prepare for the 2024 US presidential election - in which Trump is almost certain to compete against President Joe Biden.

Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni said: “The stock market has never been affected by domestic political turmoil. However, after the Trump verdict, the political climate is obviously going to be more turbulent, which could exacerbate the stock market’s fluctuations.”

In comparison to the stable performance of traditional financial assets, encryption assets obviously exhibit more intense fluctuations.

TRUMP’s price dropped from around $15 before the verdict to $11.27 shortly after the verdict, plummeting nearly 25% in just over an hour.

The market capitalization of smaller Trump concept coins has also plummeted significantly. MAGA Hat (MAGA) has dropped by 16% within an hour, Super Trump (STRUMP) has dropped by 16% within an hour, and MAGA VP (MVP) has dropped by 22% within an hour.

Memecoins inspired by Trump’s main rival, current US President Joe Biden, pumped after the verdict. Jeo Boden (BODEN), the largest memecoin by market capitalization, pumped 12% in an hour.

Six, Other Issues Worth Following

1. What will happen after Trump is convicted?

The next step will be for Judge Juan Mershon to sentence him, with the sentencing set for July 11th. This is just a few days before the Republican National Convention on July 15th, where the Republican Party will officially nominate Trump as the presidential candidate for the November 5th election. Mershon stated that Trump can remain at large until the sentencing.

Defendants convicted of serious crimes are usually sentenced to imprisonment, but the law does not stipulate that they must serve their sentence. Especially since the former president is already 77 years old and a first-time offender with no criminal record, it is necessary to treat him leniently. Trump may also be required to pay some form of financial penalty.

2. How long might Trump go to jail?

Each charge is a Class E felony, with a sentence of 1.5 to 4 years. As Trump has been convicted of multiple charges, he can be sentenced to serve multiple charges concurrently, meaning the former president will serve all sentences at the same time.

3. Can Trump appeal?

Yes, he immediately objected to the verdict, claiming that the fight “is far from over.” But he can only appeal to the New York State after the sentence is pronounced.

Trump may eventually ask the Supreme Court of the United States to intervene.

4. Where might Trump serve his sentence?

Currently it is unclear where Trump will serve his sentence, but the United States Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting current and former presidents, has met with federal, state, and local officials to discuss the possibility of Trump being imprisoned.

If Donald Trump is sentenced to one year or less in prison, he may serve his sentence at Rikers Island jail in New York, where there are seven jails. Allen Weisselberg, the former CFO of the Trump Organization, who is 76 years old, recently admitted to perjury and is currently serving a five-month sentence in the medical department of that jail.

5. Does Trump’s conviction mean he cannot run for re-election?

Trump can still run for public office. The US Constitution has very few qualifications for running for public office, including no restriction on character or criminal record.

6. How will this ruling affect the 2024 election?

Currently it is unclear how his conviction will affect the election results. But if Trump wins, the United States will be the first country to be led by a convicted felon - a fact that is not uncommon in other parts of the world. Trump compares himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.

7. If Trump is re-elected, can he pardon himself?

If Trump is reelected, he theoretically can instruct the Department of Justice to dismiss these cases.

According to the data from the blockchain prediction market Polymarket, traders still predict that Trump will defeat Biden in the November election. Even after the verdict, Trump still leads by a wide margin - with a 56% chance of winning, compared to Biden’s 38% chance.